The Software Revolution

Altman argues that the software revolution is the current great technological revolution, but that it will follow the usual pattern of technology by creating wealth while destroying jobs. He says this will likely worsen wage outcomes for the median worker and intensify wealth inequality.

He also says the bigger danger is the concentration of power in small groups. In his view, AI and synthetic biology could give small teams or individuals the ability to cause extreme harm, so the right response is not to stop progress but to build sensible safeguards and make good uses of the technology stronger than bad ones.

Reading notes

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• The software revolution is one of the three great technological revolutions, alongside agriculture and industry.
• The industrial revolution was unusual because it created many jobs through the labor required to run new technology.
• Software is more likely to create wealth while destroying jobs.
• The author says the revolution will probably not improve median wages on its own.
• Technology increases leverage, concentrates wealth, and drives inequality.
• He expects drastic wealth inequality to be a major social problem in the next 20 years.
• He rejects the idea of trying to preserve worthless jobs.
• He says creating new jobs for billions of people will be very hard because future work may be unlike current work.
• He criticizes the idea that self-driving cars or Uber will preserve millions of jobs forever.
• A second major risk is the concentration of power in small groups.
• AI and synthetic biology may give small groups or individuals the ability to cause tremendous harm.
• He says a terrible disease may already be designable in a small lab.
• He says an AI capable of ending human life may require only a few hundred people in an office with laptops.
• Some tasks that once required nations, such as building a rocket, can now be done by companies with software help.
• The response should be sensible safeguards, not bans on knowledge or attempts to stop technological progress.
• He suggests using technology on the good side to outrun bad actors, such as vaccines against synthetic diseases or good AI against bad AI.
• He says current efforts to deal with synthetic biology and AI threats are not serious enough.