Futurists have their heads in the clouds

The text argues that futurists are wrong when they imagine new technologies and underestimate continuities of the present. The proposal is to predict 2050 by extrapolating trends already underway, especially in the US and the globalized rich world.

Reading notes

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• Futurists tend to seem like science fiction writers without a plot, because they focus on technological possibilities and associated metaphors.
• To predict better, it is necessary to be incrementalist and assume that human nature changes little on most axes.
• What matters most in the future is usually the continuation of trends already emerging, not entirely new inventions.
• In 2050, there will be a civilian Martian colony, with a growing city and participation by private companies, NASA, and other national programs.
• Economic life will be strongly commodified, with attention, time, and tokens entering volatile markets and generating extreme gains.
• Corporate AI will be the futuristic change most present in daily life, helping with scheduling, writing, and presentations, while also threatening office workers and artists.
• The entertainment supersensorium will continue to grow, with virtual reality gaining space and increasing continuous exposure to stimuli.
• Society will have fewer physical stores and more fast deliveries by app, drone, or small robot.
• Most education will take place online, with private tutors, MOOCs, and testing centers replacing much of the traditional university experience.
• Genetic engineering of embryos to avoid diseases will be common, but without significantly improving intelligence, athletics, or attractiveness.
• Anti-aging technologies will expand the health of the rich and make more visible the difference between those who have more and those who have fewer resources.
• The standard of living will continue rising, with smart homes, electric cars, augmented reality glasses, and a more integrated and discreet aesthetic.
• Families will have less social weight, with a high presence of single-parent households and greater state intervention in care and basic income.
• Women will have growing dominance in the economy and society, with more degrees, more income in urban areas, and greater institutional presence.
• Throuple and other forms of polyamory will gain more public acceptance and possibly national legalization.
• The nonwhite population will be the majority in the United States, while minorities will continue to stand out in universities, companies, and creative areas.
• Wars between great powers will remain rare, with the continuity of nuclear peace and no Third World War.
• At the same time, social networks will intensify internal culture wars, public lynchings, and social instability.
• The West will become more like China, with greater control of speech, censorship, and policing of ideas in partnership between governments and large platforms.
• Culture and behavior will become more cautious and less risky, with less sex, drugs, affairs, and creativity.
• The 2000-2020 period is seen as weak compared with 1950-1970 in art, music, literature, cinema, and scientific discoveries.
• The author ends with a personal reflection on aging until 2050, seeing the family bookstore close, and imagining the colony on Mars as consolation.