Europe is under siege

Noah Smith argues that Europe is under pressure from three directions at once. The United States is no longer interested in defending the European project, Russia is using war and gray-zone tactics against Europe, and China is strengthening Russia while also threatening European industry and exports.

He says Europe should respond by treating itself more like one political and economic unit, by increasing defense cooperation and nuclear deterrence, and by rebuilding key industrial capacity, especially for drones and other electric technologies. He also argues that Europe needs new trade partners and greater willingness to borrow, spend, and reform in order to defend itself.

Reading notes

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• Europe’s vulnerability comes from division and from hostile powers surrounding it.
• The United States no longer sees Europe as central to its interests, except in terms of “Western Civilization.”
• Trump and the Republican right care more about immigration, Christian identity, and civilizational alignment than about NATO or democracy.
• Russia threatens Europe through sabotage, influence operations, war, and the use of conquered populations as forced manpower.
• China helps Russia with technology, production, intelligence, and disinformation.
• China also threatens Europe economically through export dumping, industrial competition, and pressure on chips and rare earths.
• Europe should act more like a single country and less like a loose zone.
• European defense should be more integrated, with common procurement and stronger support for Ukraine.
• Europe should deepen its single market, consider a fiscal union, and make use of more borrowing in emergencies.
• Europe needs more military spending, a stronger nuclear deterrent, and a defense-industrial base able to make drones and their components.
• Europe should restart nuclear plants, build more nuclear power, relax some AI regulation, and adjust other policies to make rearmament and industrial recovery possible.
• Europe should seek stronger trade ties with India, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Brazil.